Latino Voters and the Political Earthquake in New York

To the Democratic and Republican establishments especially those gearing up for re-election next year I would say pay attention to the Mamdani campaign It seems various Latinos are and they will certainly make their opinions heard at the ballot box again Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani center with NYC Comptroller and former fellow mayoral candidate Brad Lander and NYS Attorney General Tish James at this year s pride parade Ayman Siam Office of NYC Comptroller This analysis is part of a series of columns exploring the role of the Latino vote in the city s municipal elections Read more here here and here Elections that produce seismic shifts in the political landscape are rare With the shocking win last week of Zohran Mamdani a -year-old democratic socialist assemblyman from Queens New York experienced one of these shifts Indeed Mamdani s success in the Democratic primary is better understood as an unexpected political earthquake Inadequate expected Mamdani to win Plenty of observers wondered whether he could pull together the type of coalition needed to defeat a longtime political powerhouse Could he expand the electorate Could he energize younger voters Could he appeal to and turn out low-propensity voters like Asians and Latinos Apparently Mamdani did all the above And interestingly it appears that he has won a plurality of the Latino vote function d u ac var s d createElement 'script' s type 'text javascript' s src 'https a omappapi com app js api min js' s async true s dataset user u s dataset campaign ac d getElementsByTagName 'head' appendChild s document 'u kmqsczew vunxutxmd' That in itself is a feat Conventional wisdom held that Mamdani could not peel away enough Latino voters from Andrew Cuomo considering that Latinos have constantly viewed the former governor favorably Amidst all of his troubles Latinos remained loyal to a governor they felt had responded to plenty of of their necessities When Hurricane Maria ravaged the island of Puerto Rico Cuomo stepped up by coordinating flights to deliver goods and emergency services assistance Likewise his responses to crises in the Dominican Republic Latinos remember such efforts So what gives How and where did Mamdani manage to win a crucial voting bloc that Cuomo needed The New York Times has definitely provided an excellent breakdown of the poll results by a number of demographics including ethnicity based on U S Census and City Planning figures I have examined the preliminary first round votes of the mayoral candidates within Latino-majority polling districts These districts were identified using the L voter file which not only draws on Census evidence but numerous other sources to identify ethnic information as precisely as realizable With this details I have lasered in on electoral contest districts that are more than percent Latino so as to avoid the complications of deciphering Latino voters in referendum districts that are more diverse Until voter files are updated we will not have a complete picture of the magnitude of this referendum Thus all current analyses including this one demand caution Outside the early voting site at the Mosholu Montefiore Population Center in the Bronx on June Photo by Adi Talwar Here s what I ascertained In Manhattan Mamdani outdid Cuomo by just over votes His greatest success was in Washington Heights and Inwood the nd Assembly district Mamdani lost the Latino-majority balloting districts in the Lower East Side by votes He won the super-majority Latino voting process districts in East Harlem th Assembly District by votes and the st Assembly district covering parts of Hamilton Heights Harlem and lower Washington Heights by votes Remember I am only examining super-majority Latino polling districts so these results do not refer to the overall vote in these respective districts Notably majority of of the elected agents in these areas did not endorse Mamdani including Congressman Adriano Espaillat whose district encompasses all these neighborhoods Only State Sen Robert Jackson and Councilmember Carmen De La Rosa endorsed the presumptive Democratic nominee I am not factoring in those elected to party positions who made their own endorsements in the race The Bronx tells a different story with the Latino vote Cuomo handily beat Mamdani in the bulk of the majority-Latino sections in the Bronx which is the only majority-Latino borough in the city In the South Bronx percent of voters went for Cuomo In the Kingsbridge Fordham and Belmont neighborhoods percent of voters went for Cuomo and percent for Mamdani Of the Soundview Longwood and Hunts Point neighborhoods percent of votes went for Cuomo Mamdani held on to percent And we see similar results in the Morris Heights University Heights and Tremont neighborhoods In the Bronx too Cuomo earned the lion s share of endorsements from Latino elected personnel State Sen Gustavo Rivera bucked the trend strongly supporting Mamdani This vote proves once again that majority endorsements are meaningless and very sparse endorsers have the ceiling to move the needle on any given polling Moving to Brooklyn I note that Mamdani won these super-majority Latino balloting districts over Cuomo by a total of votes Mamdani s largest aid was in Sunset Park st Assembly District Bushwick and Williamsburg rd Assembly District Because of the stark gentrification of these neighborhoods especially the latter two I have been especially careful to identify those precincts which are percent-plus Latino In the th Assembly District covering parts of East New York and Cypress Hills Mamdani bested Cuomo by votes Photo by Adi Talwar The Queens results in Latino neighborhoods present us with even more fascinating realities I looked at the percent-plus Latino electoral process districts in Corona Elmhurst East Elmhurst Ozone Park and Ridgewood Mamdani won those precincts by votes While these numbers may appear similar to results in Manhattan and Brooklyn they show an stimulating dynamic in Latino voting patterns particularly in Queens My analysis of the presidential referendum in Queens proved an increase in patronage for Donald Trump though this increase was not as pronounced as specific thought Of all Latino neighborhoods in the city Queens saw the the majority major decline in backing for the Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris Recalling this very latest history makes the current mayoral primary results in these neighborhoods seem erratic How could Latinos vote for a democratic socialist after voting for the conservative authoritarianism of Donald Trump If anything these results remind us yet again of what has now become almost a clich Latinos are not homogenous We do not fit any once-size-fits-all formulations Latinos are quite diverse in cultural variety countries of origin language nuances and political philosophies This can also be seen at the ballot box In fact we can see it in this vote bulk Bronx Latinos went with Cuomo while a plurality of Latinos in other boroughs went with Mamdani Moreover Latino sponsorship for Mamdani particularly in Queens should help us understand that the increase in patronage for Trump in was not necessarily an indication of an ideological rightward shift What these results may be telling us is that economic populist messaging resonates deeply with Latino audiences And this should come as no surprise It surely was not a surprise for Mamdani Mamdani a truly generational political talent has understood quite well the plight of struggling communities like Latinos whose quotidian realities evoke continuing economic anxieties A newest Columbia Center on Poverty and Social Program and Robin Hood record shows that Latinos are the poorest ethnic group in New York City followed closely by Asian and then Black New Yorkers It should come as no surprise then that Mamdani who lasered in on affordability issues would earn the sponsorship of a plurality of Latinos and win the Asian vote Mamdani s encouragement among Black New Yorkers was also higher than chosen anticipated It should also come as no surprise that the majority Latinos do not see fare-free buses no cost childcare and freezing rents as a vice These are issues that Latinos care deeply about because their very livelihoods depend on all these vital day-to-day matters To the Democratic and Republican establishments then especially those gearing up for re-election next year I would say pay attention to the Mamdani campaign It seems a great number of Latinos are and they will certainly make their opinions heard at the ballot box again Eli Valentin is a former Gotham Gazette contributor and at this moment serves as assistant dean of graduate and leadership studies at Virginia Union University He lives in New York with his family To reach the editor contact Jeanmarie citylimits org Want to republish this story Find City Limits reprint procedures here The post Latino Voters and the Political Earthquake in New York appeared first on City 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